rollcall

Glad to see so many redditors interested in this race! We have Texas Senate rated as Likely Republican. O’Rourke’s fundraising can’t be ignored. It’s been phenomenal and sustained. He has tapped a large number of donors eager to send a message to President Trump and Sen. Cruz. I don’t think O’Rourke raises that same money if he’s running against John Barrasso in Wyoming.

That being said, it’s still a tough race for O’Rourke. I don’t doubt he can get 43% (what Clinton got), 44 or 45%. I just think each percentage point above that is difficult. And just when I start to believe in O’Rourke’s chances a little more, he does things like come out in favor of impeaching the president.

I think that’s the kind of stuff that could turn off voters in the middle.

Great first question! Our ratings are a delicate balance between lots of factors including candidate quality, so we’re already trying to account for that “it” factor.

I think it will be fascinating to see if someone like Democrat Richard Ojeda in West Virginia 3 has the charisma and personal story to overcome the GOP-lean of the district at the federal level. This morning we just changed the rating of the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Here's a link to our updated map: https://media.cq.com/electionguide/house/WV/3/

This is like asking me to choose which one of my four kids is my favorite!

I can find something interesting about almost any race. But right now, I think Orange County is fascinating, not just because I went to college out there, and not just because of the top two primary drama. But because you have four competitive races and it will help us understand whether 2016 was an aberration or the new baseline. Just because Clinton won OC doesn’t mean it’s a Democratic county, IMO.

I think it’s a county full of Republicans who don’t like President Trump. But are those Republicans going to turn out for their GOP member or candidate when they’re disappointed in the White House? I don’t think we have an answer yet.

I think Mississippi becomes vulnerable if McDaniel makes the top two, and I’m not sure he’s got a lot of momentum left.

But if polling shows he has more of a shot at knocking off Hyde-Smith, then I assume we’ll re-rate the race. Our ratings certainly aren’t set in stone.

I think the place where outside money has the most influence can be in primaries, when one candidate can massively outspend the other(s).

In contrast, if one candidate/party outspends the other $25 million to $30 million, I’m not sure it’s a big deal. But if a candidate spends $3 million and other(s) spend $100,000, that’s a big deal. At the same time, the candidate with the most money doesn’t always win.

Just ask Congressman David Trone of Maryland. Wait....